Macro-economic data up to 2022

In 2018 fewer companies expect flat-negative rouble sales: just 5% compared with 22% in 2017. Business results across sectors, within sectors and wiring categories within one single company are often very mixed. Our partners, CEEMEA Business Group, think that the 2018 sustained economic recovery should mean that the macro-economic and “macro-business” elements should be business supportive in 2018 with the oil price averaging $52-58 per barrel meaning that Russian GDP will average close to 2.0% next year (2018).

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Russian corporates are buying again. This explains the rally in B2B sales along with Moscow modernization, the bridge to Crimea and the World Cup investment. B2B companies appear set to report strong rouble growth this year and plan to replicate that in 2018 but at lower growth levels in the 5-10% range.

After a strong-steady growth result in 2017 for pharmaceutical and health with 76% of respondents reporting sales in a range of 5-20% range, remarkably the same proportion plan such numbers for 2018.

2017 was disappointing year for some consumer product companies with 37% reporting flat or negative rouble sales. But others have picked up over the last months and this can be seen in the figures.

2017 was a year when a growing number of companies found it easier to meet FX targets and when rouble budgets were harder to hit. 2018 budgets say that the rouble will stay at current levels or within a 2-5% weakening band — a fair presumption assuming oil price stays in a band of $50-55 which is today’s consensus.

Central scenario - 2018 economic outlook (oil averages $50-55)

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We’re pleased to share with you the review conducted by our partner CEEMEA Business Group that provides you with a statistical report with the numbers you need for 2018, key statistics on a monthly basis and macro-economic data up to 2022.

CEEMEA Business Group works with over 5,000 executives from over 400 international and regional companies in Europe, Middle East and Africa. Thanks to our cooperation with CEEMEA, our clients receive first-hand top-quality independent cross-sectoral analytical reports intended for Russian top managers so that they can make well-informed strategic decisions.